TIAN Qi dong1, LIU Xue fei1, LIN Xin wei1, LI Jun1,HE Lan tu1, GUO Chuang xin2

(1.State Grid Shenzhen Power Supply Company, Shenzhen 518000, China；

2.School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that the operation risk assessment of wind farm was not accurate, the wind speed dependence, the wind power output forecasting model, and the operational risk assessment were studied. The matrix transform method was used to simulate the wind speed conditions between different wind farm，and quantity the wind speed conditions with certain correlation. The wind power output model was used to calculate the predicted values of short term wind power, and the Beta distribution was used to model the conditional probability of a given output. At the same time, in order to quantify the impact of weather factors especially the bad weather on the operation risk assessment of wind farm, the two state weather model was used. And an operation risk assessment method of wind farm operation was presented, which took into account the correlation of wind speed and the output uncertainty and the weather factor. The risk assessment process based on non sequential Monte Carlo method was given, and the improved IEEE RTS79 system with wind farm was used for the simulation. The results indicate that the method can provide more accurate and reasonable risk assessment results, and provide reference for the operation risk assessment of wind farms.

Key words: wind farms; operation risk; wind speed correlation; wind output uncertainty; weather conditions