XV Wei1, DU Zhendong2, WANG Huifang1

 

(1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;

 

2.The Economic and Technical Research Institute, Zhejiang Electric Power Company, Hangzhou 310008, China)

 

 

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that planning and retrofit of power network require more evidences based on substation life, least squares support vector machine, the theory of life cycle cost and interval analysis were investigated. After operating environment and quality condition of substation were analyzed, the influence of factors above on the failure rate of the three types of failure which are ordinary failure, larger failure and catastrophic failure were established considering different enlistment ages of substation. A method was presented to estimate economical operating life interval of substation. Based on the change of the three types of failure rate, annual maintenance cost interval and failure cost interval were calculated. At last, the time interval with the minimum annual average cost was regarded as economical operating life interval of substation. The results indicate that proposed method is beneficial for decisionmakings such as network planning and substation retrofit, and can further improve scientific character of power network planning and decisionmaking of operation and maintenance.

 

Key words: failure rate of substation; economical operating life interval; substation retrofit