QIAN Zhen1, CAI Shibo1, GU Yuqing2, TONG Jianjun1, BAO Guanjun1*

 

(1. Key Laboratory of E & M, Ministry of Education & Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University of Technology, 

Hangzhou 310032, China; 2. Technology Center, SAIC Motor Corporation Limited, Shanghai, 200041)

 

 

Abstract: Aiming at the problems of unstable solar PV power generation, the related prediction researches were analyzed and the suggestions of researching aspects in the future were proposed.The factors that influencing the PV power generating, such as solar radiation, clearness index, sunshine duration, cloud, temperature, wind speed and dust accumulation, were introduced. Recent progress of PV power prediction from 2008, especially shortterm prediction research, was emphasized and overviewed. The two important index of PV power prediction, Temporal scale and accuracy were analyzed. The technical challenges that were needed to focus on in the PV power generation prediction, like data support, factors identification, accuracy metrics, time response and evaluation standard, were explored. The results indicate that most of recent research work are dedicated to shortterm prediction and there is no approved standard for all kind of prediction methodologies till now, which makes it impossible to evaluate the algorithms. Finally, the suggestions for PV power generation prediction research in the future are proposed by the summary of the review analysis.

 

Key words: power prediction; solar PV system; evaluation standard